Kentucky Derby Post Position Statistics: 96 Years of Data on Every Gate 1–20
The Kentucky Derby starting gate has been spitting out winners and breaking hearts since 1930. Some posts are graveyards. Others are launching pads. And the gap between the best gate and the worst gate is bigger than most casual bettors realise.
This is the complete post position record for the Kentucky Derby — every gate from 1 to 20, all the way back to when Churchill Downs first installed a starting gate in 1930. Win percentages, in-the-money rates, the last horse to win from each post, and the last horse to even hit the board. Plus a fresh look at the hand the 2026 field of Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado and the rest were handed by the post position draw.
The Churchill Downs historical record runs to 96 runnings, and on a sample this size the long view is more reliable than the short view. Where the modern era (post-2000) tells a different story to the all-time numbers — and on a few gates, it really does — we'll flag it explicitly.
Why Post Position Matters More at Churchill Downs Than Anywhere Else
In a six-furlong sprint with eight horses, the gate barely matters. In the Kentucky Derby, it can be the entire race.
Up to 20 three-year-olds break from a single starting gate, the only race in North America at that size. The run to the first turn at Churchill Downs is long enough that a wide draw can cost a horse three or four lengths before the race has shape. The inside posts face the opposite problem — 16 horses to the outside all angling for the rail, all trying to find position before the bend.
The result is a 96-year data record that shows clear, repeatable patterns. Some are the patterns you'd expect. Others are not.
The Master Chart: Every Post Position Since 1930
Below is the full Churchill Downs post position record for the Kentucky Derby, updated through the 2025 running. The Record column shows starts-wins-seconds-thirds. Posts that have hosted fewer runnings (16–20) had smaller fields available historically — every Derby uses posts 1–10, but only races with 11+ entries fill the outer gates.
| Post | 2026 Starter | Record | Win % | ITM % | Last Winner | Last In-the-Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 96-8-5-5 | 8.3% | 18.8% | Ferdinand (1986) | Lookin At Lee (2nd, 2017) |
| 2 | Albus | 96-7-6-13 | 7.3% | 27.1% | Affirmed (1978) | Sierra Leone (2nd, 2024) |
| 3 | Intrepido | 96-6-8-8 | 6.3% | 22.9% | Mystik Dan (2024) | Mystik Dan (1st, 2024) |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 96-5-6-4 | 5.2% | 15.6% | Super Saver (2010) | Danza (3rd, 2014) |
| 5 | Right to Party | 96-10-8-4 | 10.4% | 22.9% | Always Dreaming (2017) | Audible (3rd, 2018) |
| 6 | Commandment | 96-2-8-3 | 2.1% | 13.5% | Sea Hero (1993) | Good Magic (2nd, 2018) |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 95-8-7-6 | 8.4% | 22.1% | Mandaloun (2021) | Journalism (2nd, 2025) |
| 8 | So Happy | 95-9-5-5 | 9.5% | 20.0% | Mage (2023) | Mage (1st, 2023) |
| 9 | The Puma | 92-4-6-8 | 4.3% | 19.6% | Riva Ridge (1972) | Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, 2021) |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 89-9-6-11 | 10.1% | 29.2% | Giacomo (2005) | Forever Young (3rd, 2024) |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 85-2-6-4 | 2.4% | 14.1% | Winning Colors (1988) | Code of Honor (2nd, 2019) |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 81-3-3-4 | 3.7% | 12.3% | Canonero II (1971) | Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023) |
| 13 | Silent Tactic | 79-5-5-7 | 6.3% | 21.5% | Nyquist (2016) | Nyquist (1st, 2016) |
| 14 | Potente | 69-2-6-6 | 2.9% | 20.3% | Carry Back (1961) | Essential Quality (3rd, 2021) |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 64-6-2-1 | 9.4% | 14.1% | Authentic (2020) | Authentic (1st, 2020) |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 53-5-3-3 | 9.4% | 20.8% | Sovereignty (2025) | Sovereignty (1st, 2025) |
| 17 | Six Speed | 46-0-1-2 | 0.0% | 6.5% | None | Forty Niner (2nd, 1988) |
| 18 | Further Ado | 38-2-4-0 | 5.3% | 15.8% | Country House (2019) | Country House (1st, 2019) |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 32-1-1-1 | 3.1% | 9.4% | I’ll Have Another (2012) | Baeza (3rd, 2025) |
| 20 | Fulleffort | 19-2-0-1 | 10.5% | 15.8% | Rich Strike (2022) | Rich Strike (1st, 2022) |
Source: Churchill Downs official post position statistics, 1930–2025. Records reflect the post position from which a horse actually started, not the program number assigned at the draw.
The Big Patterns
Post 5 is the historical king
Ten winners. Eight runner-ups. A 10.4% win rate that ranks second only to PP20's small-sample 10.5%. Post 5 has produced more Derby winners than any other gate in the 96-year sample, including California Chrome (2014) and Always Dreaming (2017). Between 2012 and 2019 every single Kentucky Derby produced a top-five finisher from PP5. If a quality horse draws this gate, take it as a gift.
Post 17 is the only gate that has never produced a winner
0-for-46. One second (Forty Niner, 1988). Two thirds. The longest unbroken futility streak in the field. The horse drawing PP17 is not a mathematical impossibility — it's just that 95 years of Derby history hasn't produced a winning trip from it yet. Until somebody breaks the curse, the price has to be very, very right.
Posts 11, 12 and 14 are quietly terrible
PP12 has produced exactly three winners in 81 starts, the last in 1971 (Canonero II). PP11 has two winners in 85 starts, last in 1988. PP14 hasn't produced a winner since Carry Back in 1961 — 65 years and counting. None of these gates carries the headline curse of PP17, but the strike rates are almost as bleak.
The outside has become the new inside
This is the most important shift in modern Derby handicapping. Before 1995, only seven of 65 Derby winners broke from PP13 or higher. Since 1995, 16 of 31 have. Since 2000 specifically, more than half of all winners have come from PP13 or wider. PP15 alone has produced Orb (2013), American Pharoah (2015) and Authentic (2020). PP16 produced Sovereignty in 2025. PP20 produced Rich Strike at 80-1 in 2022.
The reason is straightforward: 20-horse fields turn the first turn into traffic chaos. Horses on the inside get squeezed, clipped or shuffled. Horses on the outside cover more ground but inherit cleaner air. In the modern Derby, room to run trumps the shorter trip.
Post 1 has been broken since Reagan was president
Ferdinand won the Kentucky Derby from the rail in 1986. Nobody has done it since. Only three horses have won from PP1, PP2 or PP3 in the last 39 years, and all three came from PP3: Alysheba (1987), Real Quiet (1998) and Mystik Dan (2024). Before 1987, the win rate for PP1–3 was a healthy 10.9%. Since 1987, it is 2.6%.
Post Position by Running Style
Raw post position numbers tell only half the story. The other half is whether a horse's running style suits the gate it has drawn. A pace-setter on the rail behaves very differently to a deep closer on the rail.
| Running Style | Best-Suited Posts | Trip Profile | Historical Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Speed / Pace-Setter | Posts 1–4 | Save ground but risk being pinched on the rail or rushed wide by 16+ rivals breaking on top. | Strong gate speed essential. Inside speed has won (Always Dreaming, 2017) but the margin for error is tiny. |
| Stalker / Pace-Presser | Posts 5–10 | The classical sweet spot. Room to clear the inside speed without surrendering ground around the first turn. | Most forgiving zone. Mage (PP8, 2023), Mandaloun (PP7, 2021) and the historical PP5 winners profile here. |
| Mid-Pack / Tactical | Posts 11–15 | Need a clean break to avoid being four-to-five wide on the first turn. Reward: traffic-free trip. | PP15 has produced Orb, American Pharoah and Authentic since 2013. PP11–14 are tougher historically. |
| Closer / Deep Closer | Posts 16–20 | Cover more ground but inherit the cleanest air. Easier to drop in behind the field and pick off tired rivals. | PP16 (Sovereignty, 2025) and PP20 (Rich Strike, 2022) have won three of the last seven. Outside is the new inside. |
What the 2026 Draw Tells Us
The 152nd Kentucky Derby drew an overflow field of 24 horses. Four sit on the also-eligible list (Great White, Ocelli, Robusta, Corona de Oro) and would draw into PP20 in order if scratches occur, with the rest of the field shifting inward. Below is how the 20 horses who drew into the body of the field were treated by the gate.
| Post | Horse | ML Odds | Draw Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | +400 | Drew the worst gate in the modern era. No PP1 winner since 1986. Pletcher will need Irad Ortiz Jr. to either gun and clear or settle and pray for a hole. The morning-line favourite tag does not fix the rail. |
| 5 | Right to Party | +3000 | Best historical post in the gate (10.4% win rate, 10 winners since 1930). At +3000 with Kenny McPeek and the most productive gate in Derby history, this is a defensible exotics inclusion. |
| 6 | Commandment | +600 | Brad Cox’s second-favourite drew a gate that has produced just two winners in the last 65 years. PP6 looks worse than the morning line suggests. |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | +2000 | PP7 won as recently as Mandaloun in 2021 and was second last year with Journalism. Fair price improves if you give weight to gate history. |
| 8 | So Happy | +1500 | PP8 has produced Barbaro, Mine That Bird and Mage. Most versatile gate in the field for both pace types. Live longshot if you like the form. |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | +3000 | PP10 has the highest in-the-money rate in the chart at 29.2%. The Japanese raider is well-placed for a place/show ticket even if winning looks a stretch. |
| 16 | Pavlovian | +3000 | Sovereignty won this gate last year. Three of the last seven winners have come from PP16 or wider. Worth more than +3000 on draw alone. |
| 17 | Six Speed | +5000 | 0-for-46 from PP17. The longest-running futility streak in the gate. The price is the price for a reason — but somebody eventually breaks the curse. |
| 18 | Further Ado | +600 | Country House won from PP18 in 2019. Wide draw is no death sentence at this price for a Bluegrass winner with tactical speed. |
| 20 | Fulleffort | +2000 | Highest win rate of any post (10.5%) on a tiny sample, and Rich Strike (80-1) cashed from here in 2022. Outside post + a stalker profile is exactly the trip you want. |
The headline takeaways
Renegade got the worst draw of any morning-line favourite since the modern starting gate was introduced in 2020. Pletcher and Ortiz have to invent a trip from the rail.
Right to Party (PP5), Wonder Dean (PP10) and Pavlovian (PP16) all drew above-average gates at longshot prices. If you're building exotics tickets, these are the names where the draw has shifted the value in your favour.
Six Speed (PP17) is the curse-watch horse. The first PP17 winner in Derby history is going to come from somewhere — but 0-for-46 is a long way to fade.
Fulleffort and the also-eligibles cluster around PP20, the gate that won at 80-1 with Rich Strike in 2022. Worth a structural-bias play, not a confidence play.
How to Use This Data on Race Day
Three rules of thumb that hold up across the full 96-year record:
Don't punish a horse for a high gate number. Since 2000, the outside half of the gate has produced more winners than the inside half.
Do punish a speed horse drawn very wide, and a closer drawn very inside. Running style and gate together matter more than gate alone.
Do punish PP1, PP12, PP14 and especially PP17 unless the price is significantly above the morning line. These gates carry decades of evidence against them.
Post position isn't destiny. Mystik Dan won from PP3 in 2024. Sovereignty won from PP16 in 2025. Rich Strike won from PP20 in 2022. The data narrows the field — it doesn't pick the winner for you. But on a 20-horse race where every percentage point of edge matters, knowing which gates have historically helped and which have historically hurt is one of the few free edges left in the betting.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
Image by Naoki Nakashima, via Wikimedia Commons. Licensed under CC BY 2.0.
