The Derby is tomorrow. I've made my pick.
I've been staring at the Derby form for three days. Circling the same names. Scratching them out. Coming back to them. Fulleffort's out with a bone chip. Silent Tactic's out with a bruised foot. Great White and Ocelli drew in. Twenty horses will load into the gate at Churchill Downs tomorrow at 6:57pm ET, and I still keep landing on the same horse.
The Puma. Post 9. 10-1.
Javier Castellano in the irons. Gustavo Delgado training. He doesn't have the biggest number on the page, but he's been running at horses all spring and he's peaking at the right time. In a 20-horse field with a short run to the first turn, you need a rider who can navigate traffic. Castellano's done it before. At 10-1, you're getting a horse who can sit just off the pace, save ground through the far turn, and unleash in the stretch. That's how Derbies are won.
My exacta: The Puma on top with Further Ado and Renegade underneath. Further Ado's 106 Beyer from the Blue Grass is the best figure in the field. Renegade is the 4-1 morning line favorite and Todd Pletcher's been pointing to this race since January. But favorites haven't won the Derby since Justify in 2018. Eight years. That stat alone makes me want to beat him.
If you're looking for a longshot, keep an eye on Emerging Market at 30-1. And Ocelli at 50-1 is trying to be the first maiden to win the Derby since Broker's Tip in 1933. That probably won't happen. But stranger things have occurred on the first Saturday in May.
But first. Tonight.
→ 🏇 KENTUCKY OAKS (TONIGHT, NBC)
For the first time ever, the Kentucky Oaks runs under the lights. Post time approximately 8:40pm ET on NBC and Peacock. Fourteen fillies. $1.5 million purse. 1⅛ miles. The Friday before the Derby has always been special, but primetime on network television is a different animal entirely.
Zany (4-1) is the morning line favorite. Percy's Bar and Counting Stars are right there. Meaning has been running big figures all spring.
The Oaks exacta pool is historically underbet compared to the Derby. Fewer casual bettors, same quality racing. The value tends to be better on Friday night than Saturday evening. If you're going to fire on the exotics this weekend, don't sleep on tonight.
The full undercard runs from 4pm to 8pm ET on Peacock and NBCSN, including the La Troienne G1 ($1 million) featuring Thorpedo Anna, who might be the best older mare in training.
→ 🏇 THE 152ND KENTUCKY DERBY (TOMORROW)
May 2. Churchill Downs. 6:57pm ET. NBC. Peacock. Twenty horses. 1¼ miles. $5 million purse. The single biggest betting pool of the year.
Gates open at 11am. Fourteen races on the card. The Old Forester Turf Classic goes at 5:39pm ET. Then the Derby. Then you either celebrate or start handicapping the Preakness.
THE FIELD AT A GLANCE
Renegade (4-1 ML) — Post 14. Todd Pletcher. The most experienced Derby trainer alive. Two prep wins this spring. He'll take money. He's earned it. But 4-1 in a 20-horse field on the rail-adjacent post? I want to beat him, not back him.
Commandment (5-1) — Won the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby back to back. Brad Cox. Four-race win streak. The knock: his Florida Derby time was slower than the 10-year average.
Further Ado (6-1) — Blew the Blue Grass apart by 11 lengths. 106 Beyer, best in the field. Also Brad Cox. Hall of Famer John Velazquez rides. Cox could saddle the exacta.
The Puma (10-1) — Post 9. Javier Castellano. Gustavo Delgado. My pick. The price is right, the rider is right, and the post is right. Middle of the gate, clean break, tactical speed. This is the horse.
Chief Wallabee, Iron Honor, Great White — all live at longer prices. Someone at 20-1 or 30-1 always runs a monster race in the Derby. Always.
HOW TO BET THE DERBY
Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 5, Pick 6. The Derby exotics are where fortunes are made. A $1 trifecta with three horses on top can return thousands. The pools are massive, the payouts are real, and you can build your tickets right now in the MyWinners lobby.
Full form guides, analysis, and past performances in the Handicapping Store.
🆕 New this year: the Odd vs Even bet. Pick whether the winning post position number will be odd or even. That's it. $2 minimum. It's the simplest bet on the board and a perfect way to get someone who's never bet before into the action. Hand them your phone, let them pick a side, and now they're sweating the Derby. Available on MyWinners.
→ 💰 CARRYOVERS (TODAY)
Before the Derby weekend even starts, there's biiiiiiiiig money sitting in pools right now.
🇺🇸 Santa Anita — $157,177 Pick 6 carryover (double carryover). Plus a $14,789 Sunset Pick 6 carryover (also double). Two shots at the same track today.
🇺🇸 Gulfstream Park — $156,112 Pick 6 carryover. That's been building all week.
🐴 Woodbine Mohawk — $101,400 Early Pick 5 carryover (harness). Opening night of the Championship Meet.
If you play Pick 6s or Pick 5s, today is the day. These pools won't carry forever.
→ 🐴 THE MEADOWLANDS IS BACK (TONIGHT)
I love harness racing. And The Meadowlands Championship Meet opens tonight. First post 6:35pm ET. This is the biggest harness meet in the country. Over $8 million in stakes across the season. Yes you read that right. The best pacers and trotters in North America, all under the lights at the Big M. Bring. It. On.
Tomorrow's Derby Day card is loaded: Dexter Cup G3 ($160,000) for 3-year-old trotters, the Lady Suffolk, and the opening leg of the New Jersey Sire Stakes. If you bet the Oaks tonight and the Derby tomorrow, squeeze in a Meadowlands card in between. Same bet types you already know. Win, Place, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta. Tight fields, competitive racing, and the exotics pay.
Harness handle on MyWinners is up nearly double year over year. The product is growing. Give it a look.
→ 🏇 TRACK OPENINGS
🇺🇸 Churchill Downs — Derby Week has been everything. Full cards all week. The Oaks tonight. The Derby tomorrow. The spring meet runs through June 28.
🇺🇸 Oak Grove Racing — The $2.75 million Festival of Racing begins Monday, May 4. If you're still riding the Derby high on Monday morning, Oak Grove is your next stop.
🇺🇸 Emerald Downs — Post times are set for tomorrow (Saturday May 2). The Pacific Northwest season is here.
🎉 DERBY DAY EVENTS (TOMORROW)
This is the biggest day of the year for MyWinners. We're everywhere. All retail venues open at 11am today (Friday) and 10am tomorrow (Saturday). Get in early, grab a seat, and settle in. Watch parties at:
Norwalk — Rockin' River Street. Main sponsor. Live music from Otis & The Hurricanes and Cherry Pie Band. DJ. Street performers. Lucky Dog Refuge Puppy Zone. MyWinners booth, live Derby betting, free plushies & branded merch, and $10 in free betting credit for new MyWinners signups. Derby on the big screen. Mint juleps flowing. All afternoon and evening. Buy tickets →
Bobby V's Stamford — Mint julep buckets. Plushie & branded merch giveaways. Every race on every screen. Reservations filling fast. Reserve your spot →
Bobby V's Windsor Locks — 1,000+ reservations already. Live music, giveaways, incredible food, live betting all day. Reserve your spot →
Manchester — Best hat contest. Best dressed couple. DJ. Food, drink. Fun. Reservations going quick. Reserve your spot →
We are celebrating at all nine of our Bobby V's, MyWinners and Winners venues across the region. Every screen, every race, every bet.
Let's do this together.
→ 🏀⚽⚾ SPORTS
The NBA Playoffs are getting wild. The Knicks advanced in six. The Wolves upset the Nuggets in six. The 76ers forced a Game 7 against the Celtics. Tonight we've got three potential elimination games: Magic/Pistons, Cavs/Raptors, Lakers/Rockets. If any of those go seven, next week is going to be electric.
Champions League semis wrapped the first legs this week. PSG vs Bayern shared one of the best games on record (5-4, yes nine goals!). Atletico vs Arsenal 1-1. Both second legs May 5-6. The final is May 30 in Budapest.
MLB in full swing. Catch it all at any of our nine venues and bet sports via Fanatics Sportsbook.
👉 LIVE PROMOS
The Big A Exotic Cash Splash. Cash 4 winning exactas or trifectas across Friday & Saturday at Aqueduct and win your share of $1,500 Opt in Here →
2% Tri-State GH Cash Back (exotics). 4% AUS GH Cash Back. 3% US & CAN Harness Cash Back (no show). Bet & Get at Charles Town and Mountaineer Park (no show). All promos & T&Cs →
All races referenced will be featured right at the top of your MyWinners Lobby. Derby pools are live now. Oaks pools are live now. Between the carryovers at Santa Anita and Gulfstream, the Meadowlands opener tonight, the Oaks in primetime, and the Derby tomorrow evening, there's more action on the next 30 hours than any other stretch of the racing calendar. Build your tickets. Set your lineups. Be ready.
Tomorrow. Twenty horses. A mile and a quarter. One turn for home. I've been thinking about this race every day since Sovereignty crossed the wire last May. The card is stacked. The pools are fat. The Puma is my horse. Post 9. 10-1. Castellano in the saddle. I like where he's sitting. I like the price. And I like the way he's been running at them all spring.
Let me know how you get on. See you at the finish line.
Mike B
