USA vs Belgium World Cup 2026 Preview: Round of 16 Odds, Tips and Where to Watch in Connecticut
The USMNT's best World Cup since 2002 hits its biggest test yet. Belgium arrive in Seattle on Monday night with Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and a squad that has been here before, and Pochettino's side will have to do it without their top scorer. Here's everything we're watching for USA v Belgium, the odds, the tips, and where to catch it live in Connecticut.
Match Details: USA v Belgium Round of 16
Kickoff: Monday, July 6, 8pm ET / 5pm PT
Venue: Seattle Stadium (Lumen Field), Seattle, Washington
Round: Round of 16, 2026 FIFA World Cup
TV and streaming: FOX, Fox One, Telemundo (Spanish)
This is the USMNT's fifth match of the World Cup and their second in the knockout rounds. A win sends Pochettino's side into the quarterfinals for the first time since 2002.
USA's Road to the Round of 16
The Americans won Group D comfortably, beating Paraguay 4-1 in the tournament opener behind a Folarin Balogun brace, then following it with a 2-0 win over Australia in Seattle. A 3-2 loss to Turkey in a dead rubber closed out the group, but it made no difference. USA finished top on 6 points with a plus-4 goal difference.
The Round of 32 brought Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the US closed it out 2-0. Balogun opened the scoring just before halftime for his third goal of the tournament, then was sent off in the 64th minute on a controversial VAR call. Malik Tillman added a free kick winner late on to see the Americans through, but Balogun's red card means their leading scorer is suspended for Belgium.
Belgium's Road to the Round of 16
Belgium have not been at their best. They drew Egypt 1-1 and Iran 0-0 before a 5-1 win over New Zealand carried them through their group. The Round of 32 against Senegal was even shakier: Belgium trailed twice before Youri Tielemans converted a stoppage-time penalty to force extra time, where they eventually won 3-2. It has not been pretty, but Rudi Garcia's side keeps finding ways through, and the attacking talent on the bench alone is dangerous.
USA v Belgium Odds and Betting Markets
This is as close as it gets on the board. Here's how the three-way moneyline market compares across the major US sportsbooks as of Sunday morning.
| Outcome | Average US Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| USA | +164 | 38% |
| Belgium | +163 | 38% |
| Draw | +238 | 30% |
Every book has this inside a coin flip, and the two-way to-advance market tells the same story: USA and Belgium are separated by single digits at most books. Belgium have edged into favoritism at some shops purely on squad depth, even with the US carrying home advantage and a raucous Lumen Field crowd.
Average odds correct as of Sunday morning (1100 ET).
Team News and Key Players
Folarin Balogun's suspension is the story of the build-up. He's been the USMNT's most dangerous forward all tournament with three goals, and Haji Wright is the likely replacement up top. Christian Pulisic played 88 minutes against Bosnia and Herzegovina after shaking off a calf injury and should start, with Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman getting forward from midfield to support him.
Belgium counter with Kevin De Bruyne, still the tournament's most dangerous passer, and Romelu Lukaku, who has scored twice off two goals of expected goals and sits among the shortest-priced anytime scorers on the board. Leandro Trossard has been Belgium's most productive forward by expected goals, and Thibaut Courtois anchors a defense that has conceded in every match but one.
Betting Tips and Insights
A few angles worth weighing before kickoff:
Over 2.5 goals: The US have scored at least twice in every match so far this tournament, and Belgium have failed to keep a clean sheet since the opening round. Expect goals at both ends.
Both teams to score: USA's attack loses firepower without Balogun, but Wright, Pulisic and Tillman are all capable of finding the net. Belgium have scored in every game this tournament bar the Iran draw.
Lukaku anytime scorer: The Belgian forward has been the shortest-priced anytime scorer market on this fixture. He's scored in back-to-back matches and thrives against tiring US center backs late in games.
Discipline could matter again: USA played the last 26 minutes with 10 men against Bosnia and still won. A repeat card in a tighter game against a squad as clinical as Belgium's would be far costlier.
Team USA at the World Cup: Historic Background
The USMNT's history at the World Cup is longer and stranger than most casual fans realize. The country was one of the four teams to reach the semifinals of the very first World Cup in 1930, a tournament with only 13 entrants. Twenty years later came the 1950 shock of a 1-0 win over England in Belo Horizonte, still one of the great upsets in the sport's history, though it wasn't enough to get the US out of the group.
| Year | Round | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1930 | Semi-final | Argentina | Lost 1-6 |
| 1934 | Round of 16 | Italy | Lost 1-7 |
| 1994 | Round of 16 | Brazil | Lost 0-1 |
| 2002 | Round of 16 | Mexico | Won 2-0 |
| 2002 | Quarter-final | Germany | Lost 0-1 |
| 2010 | Round of 16 | Ghana | Lost 1-2 (AET) |
| 2014 | Round of 16 | Belgium | Lost 1-2 (AET) |
| 2022 | Round of 16 | Netherlands | Lost 1-3 |
The modern high point remains 2002. The US beat Mexico 2-0 in the Round of 16, their only other men's World Cup knockout win before this tournament, before falling 1-0 to eventual runners-up Germany in the quarterfinal. Every US World Cup since has ended in the Round of 16 or earlier, including defeats to Ghana in 2010, Belgium in 2014, and the Netherlands in 2022.
Head-to-Head: USA vs Belgium at the World Cup
This is only the third time these two have met, and just the second at a World Cup. In the 1930 tournament, the very first ever played, the US beat Belgium 3-0 in the group stage behind goals from Bart McGhee, Tom Florie and Bert Patenaude. Belgium got its revenge in 2014, winning 2-1 in extra time in the Round of 16 behind goals from Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku, the same two players who remain Belgium's biggest threats twelve years later. Tim Howard's 16-save performance for the US that night is still remembered as one of the great World Cup goalkeeping displays, even in defeat.
Group D Final Standings
| Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Australia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
Where to Watch: Bobby V's Stamford and MyWinners CT Venues
Our home base for the rest of this World Cup run is Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Stamford. More than 200 TVs, two giant screens, and the kind of atmosphere that actually matches what's happening on the pitch. Doors are open well ahead of the 8pm ET kickoff, and larger groups are welcome with advance notice.
If Stamford isn't convenient, MyWinners runs nine venues across Connecticut, all set up for the match with the big screens on and Fanatics Sportsbook live inside.
Bet on USA v Belgium with Fanatics at MyWinners Venues
Watching is one thing. Having a bet down makes every touch of De Bruyne's and every Wright run in behind count for more. All nine MyWinners venues in Connecticut, including Bobby V's Stamford, carry a Fanatics Sportsbook concession, so you can watch the match on the big screen and place your bet in person on the night. Whichever way you want to play it, Fanatics has you covered in venue.
