USA Eliminated From the World Cup: What It Means for the Quarterfinal Odds
The USA are out of the World Cup after a 4-1 loss to Belgium in Seattle, a result that ran completely against the market. Here is the full breakdown of how it happened, what the betting board got wrong, a complete review of the USA's tournament, and our quarterfinal odds coverage for England vs Norway, Spain vs Belgium and France vs Morocco.
How Belgium Ended the American Dream
Belgium needed nine minutes to take the lead in Seattle, and the game barely slowed down from there. Charles De Ketelaere opened the scoring after a mistake in the USA back line, then doubled it 24 minutes later, two of them either side of a Malik Tillman free kick that briefly pulled the Americans level at 1 goal apiece. That equalizer lasted less than 2 minutes. Hans Vanaken made it 3-1 in the 57th minute after USA goalkeeper Matt Freese came out to intercept a long ball, lost control of it under pressure, and handed Belgium an open net from distance. Romelu Lukaku, on from the bench, added a fourth in stoppage time to turn a tight contest into a rout. Final score, 4-1.
Belgium's front line did the damage, but this was a collective defensive breakdown for the USA as much as it was a Belgian masterclass. De Ketelaere finished with 2 goals and an assist and was the best player on the field by some distance. Kevin De Bruyne and Jeremy Doku did not even start, which tells you how comfortable Belgium's coaching staff felt about the matchup once the game opened up.
The Odds Told a Different Story
This is where the result gets genuinely interesting for anyone who follows the market rather than just the scoreline. The USA opened as a -120 favorite to advance once the draw was confirmed. Then, less than 24 hours before kickoff, FIFA's disciplinary panel suspended Folarin Balogun's red card ban from the previous round, clearing the USA's leading scorer to play. The line moved immediately. Books that had the USA at -115 to advance pushed them out to -140. On the 90 minute moneyline, the USA sat at +150 with Belgium at +175 and the draw at +240, meaning the market rated a USA win as more likely than a Belgium win in outright terms.
Public money leaned even harder into the Americans than the price suggested. Oddschecker had 55 percent of bets on Belgium against 33 percent on the USA in the run up to kickoff, but that understates how popular the USA had been with bettors all tournament. Sportsbooks reported that the USA pulled in the majority of handle and ticket count in every single match of their run, and had been profitable for the public in three of their first four games. This was, by a wide margin, the most bet on team left in the field relative to its market size.
None of that translated to the pitch. Balogun's return was supposed to be the difference maker, and it may have been the reason the line moved, but he could not find a way through a well organized Belgian back line, and the USA's own defense fell apart before he ever got the chance to matter. We would call this one of the clearest gaps between market expectation and final result in the entire tournament so far.
There was also a political subplot running through the buildup. Balogun's suspension was reinstated by FIFA a day after reports that President Trump had personally asked FIFA president Gianni Infantino to review the decision, and Trump later confirmed he had requested a review while denying involvement in the outcome. We are not wading into that debate here. From a pure betting standpoint, the market treated the reinstatement as a material, price moving event, and it turned out to change nothing about how the game actually played out.
USA's World Cup in Review
Strip away Monday night and this was one of the better USA World Cup campaigns in a generation. The Americans won Group D outright, opening with a 4 goal to 1 win over Paraguay before a 2-0 win over Australia sealed top spot before the final group game. A meaningless loss to Turkiye once qualification was locked up did nothing to the group standing and barely registers as a dent.
| Match | Stage and Date | Opening Moneyline (90 Min) | Result | Market Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs Paraguay | Group D, June 12 | USA +110, Draw +225, Paraguay +285 | USA won 4-1 | Market right, margin bigger than the price suggested |
| USA vs Australia | Group D, June 19 | USA -170, Draw +340, Australia +425 | USA won 2-0 | Market right, USA in control throughout |
| Turkiye vs USA | Group D, June 25 | USA -105, Draw +300, Turkiye +255 | Turkiye won 3-2 | Upset, though USA started 9 changes with nothing at stake |
| USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | Round of 32, July 1 | USA -265, Draw +390, Bosnia +800 | USA won 2-0 | Market right, though USA finished the match a man down |
| USA vs Belgium | Round of 16, July 6 | USA +150, Draw +240, Belgium +175 | Belgium won 4-1 | Upset, the widest gap between price and result of USA's tournament |
The Round of 32 draw handed the USA a tough test against Bosnia and Herzegovina, and this is where Balogun's tournament really took shape. He opened the scoring with the USA leading 1-0 before picking up a second half red card, and the Americans still closed the game out 2-0 while playing a man down. Across the tournament, Balogun scored 3 goals from 11 shots, converted better than 1 in 4 of his shots on target, and averaged a touch inside the penalty area roughly every 10 minutes he played, numbers that explain why the market reacted so strongly to his return against Belgium.
This USA run was the first time the program has won a Round of 32 knockout match in 24 years, and Monday's quarterfinal chase was USA's first genuine shot at the last eight since 2002, when the Americans beat Mexico before falling to Germany. There is also an old wound reopened here. The last time these two nations met in a World Cup knockout match was 2014 in Brazil, when Chris Wondolowski's late miss sent the game to extra time and Belgium eventually won 2 -1. Twelve years on, the story ended the same way, just faster and by a wider margin.
Tyler Adams and Mauricio Pochettino were both blunt about the performance after the final whistle, and neither tried to spin a bad night into something it was not. That honesty matters for context, but it should not overshadow the bigger picture. Three wins, a knockout win for the first time since 2002, and a genuine scare put into one of the form teams of the tournament is a summer most USA fans will look back on as progress, even with how Monday ended.
What Happens Next: The Quarterfinal Bracket
| Quarterfinal | Date and Venue | Moneyline (90 Min) | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Morocco | Thursday, July 9, Boston | France -175, Morocco +500 | +285 |
| Spain vs Belgium | Friday, July 10, Los Angeles | Spain -160, Belgium +440 | +300 |
| England vs Norway | Saturday, July 11, Miami | England -105, Norway +250 | +260 |
With the USA gone, the outright market has reshuffled hard. France sit as the clear tournament favorite on every major board we track, with Spain and Argentina jostling for second and England climbing fast after their own knockout win. Belgium's odds to win the whole tournament shortened significantly off the back of Monday's performance, even as a heavy underdog in their next game. Here is our full breakdown of the three confirmed quarterfinals, plus the betting odds table below.
France vs Morocco
Thursday, July 9, Boston, 4 pm ET. This is a rematch of the 2022 semifinal, which France won 2 -0 on the way to that year's final. France have won every match this tournament, scoring 14 goals and conceding only 2, and the market makes them clear favorites at close to -175 on the 90 minute line. Prediction markets have this even more one sided, pricing France near a 62 percent implied chance in regulation against roughly 15 percent for Morocco and 24 percent for a draw. Kylian Mbappe leads the Golden Boot race with 7 goals, tied with Lionel Messi, and he is priced around -125 to score at any point in the match.
Morocco should not be dismissed. They are unbeaten through 5 matches, they eliminated the host nation Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16, and they pushed the Netherlands to penalties in the round before that. The concern is an injury to midfielder Ismael Saibari, who has 3 goals of his own this tournament and left the Canada match early. If he is unavailable, Morocco loses one of its most productive attacking outlets against a French side that has not needed to work especially hard defensively all summer.
Spain vs Belgium
Friday, July 10, Los Angeles, kickoff to be confirmed locally. Spain have not conceded a single goal in 5 matches, a defensive record that stands out even in a tournament with several strong backlines, and they open as heavy favorites at close to -160 after a narrow 1-0 win over Portugal. History is heavily on Spain's side here too. The two nations have met 8 times at World Cups, Spain lead that series 5 wins to 2, and Spain have won the last 5 meetings between the sides in a row dating back to 1990.
Belgium will point to Monday night as proof they can hurt a defense that switches off, and De Ketelaere's form alone makes them dangerous. But Spain's defense has faced nothing like the chaos Belgium created against the USA, and a team that has now gone 5 straight games without conceding is going to be the toughest task Belgium have faced all tournament. We like Spain to control this game and advance comfortably, with Belgium's best route to an upset being a fast start similar to the one that blew the USA open.
England vs Norway
Saturday, July 11, Miami, 5 pm ET. England needed a second half penalty from Harry Kane to see off Mexico 3 goals to 2 in a hostile Azteca, and they open as a short favorite at close to even money on most boards. Norway are the form story of the knockout stage. Erling Haaland has scored 7 goals in 4 matches, including both goals in a 2 goal to 1 upset of Brazil, and Norway have found the net in every game they have played this summer. This is Norway's first ever World Cup quarterfinal.
England hold a 7 win to 3 loss edge in the head to head history between these sides, with 2 draws, though none of those 12 meetings have come in the last decade and only 2 have come this century, both low key friendlies. England's bigger concern is personnel rather than history. Defender Jarell Quansah is suspended after a Round of 16 red card, forcing a reshuffle at the back against a striker in the form of his life. Independent modeling puts England's chance of advancing at around 65 percent, a shade higher than the market price, largely on squad depth and calmer game management in knockout football. We lean England, but Haaland is the one player left in the tournament capable of deciding a game on his own, and Norway should not be treated as a straightforward underdog.
Today's Final Two Round of 16 Matches
| Matchup | Kickoff and Venue | Moneyline (90 Min) | Draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina vs Egypt | 12 pm ET, Atlanta | Argentina -280, Egypt +900 | +370 |
| Switzerland vs Colombia | 4 pm ET, Vancouver | Colombia +125, Switzerland +260 | +200 |
Two results on Tuesday complete the quarterfinal bracket, and both carry clear favorites on paper.
Argentina vs Egypt kicks off at 12 pm ET in Atlanta. Argentina needed extra time to see off Cape Verde in the previous round, a result that exposed some defensive concentration issues even in a winning effort, but they remain heavy favorites here at close to -280 on the 90 minute moneyline and around -800 to advance outright. Messi is priced near -125 to score at any point and has now scored in 8 straight World Cup matches. Egypt have not conceded before halftime in 2 of their 4 matches and held Belgium scoreless through the first 45 minutes of their own group game, so a slow Argentina start would not shock us, but a talent gap this size usually shows up by full time.
Switzerland vs Colombia kicks off at 4 pm ET in Vancouver. Colombia have not conceded a goal since their opening group match and go in as favorites at close to +125 on the moneyline, with the draw close to +200. Switzerland have been efficient rather than eye catching all tournament, and this looks like the tightest game left on the board today. Whoever wins this tie draws the winner of Argentina and Egypt in the quarterfinals, which makes the Colombia side of this matchup particularly relevant for anyone looking ahead to outright market value.
Plenty Left to Play For
| Team | Outright Odds to Win the World Cup |
|---|---|
| France | +175 |
| Spain | +330 |
| Argentina | +450 |
| England | +500 |
| Norway | +1800 |
| Colombia | +2200 |
| Belgium | +2700 |
| Morocco | +3000 |
| Switzerland | +7500 |
| Egypt | +25000 |
So who wins it?
France are the team to beat on our board, priced at +175 to win the whole tournament after 5 wins from 5, 14 goals scored and only 2 conceded, and Kylian Mbappe carrying the form of anyone left in the field.
Spain sit next at +330 on the strength of a defense that still has not conceded, with Argentina close behind at +450 as they defend the title behind Messi and a squad that has found a way to win every knockout game so far even when it has not been pretty.
England have shortened to +500 after their run to the quarterfinals and remain the value pick among the leading contenders if Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham keep producing in the big moments.
Norway at +1800 is the outright longshot worth a small ticket off the back of Haaland's scoring form, with Colombia, Belgium and Morocco all sitting in the +2200 to +3000 range behind them.
Our lean is France to win it, with Spain the side most likely to stop them if the two meet in the final.
The USA's run is over, but the market has already moved on to a wide open final eight, and today's last 2 Round of 16 results will lock the bracket into place. Watch every match live at Winners and MyWinners venues, and get the game down at the venue with Fanatics Sports Betting.
