Bob Ehalt // Sat. August 21
Today’s NY Hot List races to watch at Saratoga
Hot List Key:
A: A preferred horse to watch B: Secondary horse to watch
*C: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 1st through 3rd
*D: Went down 2 or more betting notches and finished 4th or worst
* – 4 or more betting notches if 11-1 or more.
8th race [Clm 35000 N3L, 7F] – (7) Striking Speed made his 2021 debut at Saratoga in that power packed allowance race that featured the stretch duel between Beau Liam and Witsel. It was also his first start for trainer Rob Atras. A poor running line in that race is to be ignored especially as he drops into the N3L condition for the first time. (4) Identity Politics will move back to the dirt after two tries on the turf at Belmont Park. He has plenty of back races good enough to win here. (6) El Sobreviviente was claimed last time from an OC allowance at Indiana Downs by Mike Maker who now ships him to the Spa and drops him down looking for a win as he vies for the training title. (1) Restoring Hope was third in the 2018 Wood Memorial (G2) for Bob Baffert and since then he has had four trainer changes. Now running for Kelly Breen, he will make his first start for a tag while still owned by Gary and Mary West.
9th race [Lake Placid (G2), 1 1/16 mi TURF] – (3) Ego Trip (A) got off to an awkward start in her American debut and rallied for second. That was in a maiden special weight and she will try this Grade 2 in just her third career start. (2) Technical Analysis won the Lake George (G3) for Chad Brown with a stalking trip where she took control of the race at the stretch call. (6) Spanish Loveaffair won a Grade 2 at Gulfstream Park in February and then the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs. The quality of the Belmont Oaks (G1) was too much for this Mark Casse runner but this field is the right fit. (4) Runaway Rumour won her first three races including the Wild Applause at Belmont. She was fourth last time in the Lake George.
10th race [Alabama (G1), 1 ¼ mi] – (7) Army Wife is the winner of her last two races, first in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2) and then the Iowa Oaks (G3) for Mike Maker. Maker has given her time since her win on July 2 in Iowa with an eye on the Alabama. She looks like a horse that can take another step forward which she will need to do to win this race. (6) Malathaat took her first defeat in the CCA Oaks (G1) following five wins after being hounded on the front end, yet she still was able to battle down the stretch and lose by just a head. Trainer Todd Pletcher has said all along that the longer the race the better for Malathaat and that means that the ten-furlong distance is to her favor. We should expect that Johnny V. will go back to racing behind the pace with his outside post position. There are plenty who will say that the CCA Oaks will be tough to come out of at 100%. Malathaat will be heavily bet and is the horse to beat. (4) Maracuja beat Malathaat in the CCA Oaks when she stalked the pace battle and got the final run down the stretch. It is unlikely that the Maracuja will get the same kind of perfect trip. (1) Crazy Beautiful is the winner of two graded stakes in her last two starts. She will face her toughest field since running 10th in the Kentucky Oaks. Trainer Kenny McPeek has won 2 out of the last 3 editions of the Alabama.
11th race [Md Sp Wt 100000, 1 mi TURF] – (4) Split Then Double (C) was second then third in a pair of maiden special weights this year. Last time out she was bet down from 4-1 to be the 2-1 favorite. (9) So Enchanting has not run worse than third in four career starts for Chad Brown. (6) Ingress was fourth in her debut for Bill Mott at Saratoga and Mott’s horses frequently improve in their second start. (3) Epona Bay will make her career debut for Kenny McPeek. This home-bred daughter of American Pharoah is a half-sister to Collected who won $2.9 million on the racetrack.
Best bets: Army Wife (10th); Split Then Double (11th). Best value: Striking Speed (8th); Ego Trip (9th).
@NYHotList Saturday Pick 3 Special —
The Saturday Special $1 Pick 3 on races 8 – 10 ends with the Alabama (G1) à 4, 6, 7 with 2, 3, 4, 6 with 6, 7 = $24.
| No. | Name | Letter last race |
Today’s Race | Comments |
| (3) | Ego Trip | A on 7/24 | 9 | After a poor start, she rallied for second in her American debut. |
| (4) | Split Then Double | C on 7/24 | 11 | Bet down to be favorite and ran third in second start of 2021. |