The Rest of March in US Racing: Your Betting Guide from MyWinners
March is the richest month of the American racing calendar. By the time it's over, somewhere north of $10 million in stakes purses will have been distributed across four racetracks in four states — and two of the most important Grade 1 preps in the country will have decided who shows up at Churchill Downs with momentum. If you're serious about betting this spring, the next two weekends are where the edges are sharpest and the exotic pools run deepest.
This guide covers every high-value betting opportunity from now through March 31, including race-by-race angles, tips on the horses to watch, and advice on where the pari-mutuel money tends to land — and where it tends to get it wrong.
Weekend One: Saturday, March 21
Two 100-point Derby qualifiers run simultaneously this Saturday — one in New Orleans, one in Florence, Kentucky. That means two separate pari-mutuel pools, two separate angles, and twice the action.
Louisiana Derby (G2) — Fair Grounds, New Orleans | Post: 5:42 PM CT
Race: $1 million | 1 3/16 miles on dirt | Road to the Kentucky Derby (100-50-25-15-10 points)
The Louisiana Derby is one of the oldest preps on the calendar — it dates back to 1894 — and its record as a Derby pipeline is legitimate. Country House won here before winning the 2019 Derby. Mandaloun did the same in 2021. When a horse runs well in New Orleans, the Churchill Downs community takes notice.
The field: Nine starters. No clear standout, which is exactly when pari-mutuel betting gets interesting. The favorite is Chip Honcho (morning line 3-1), trained by Steve Asmussen and coming off a runner-up finish to points leader Paladin in the Risen Star (G2). He's fast, he's tactical, and he knows this track — he's run here multiple times this season. He's also getting first-time blinkers, which could sharpen his early focus over this 1 3/16-mile distance.
Also in: Golden Tempo (Phipps Stable / St. Elias Stable), another Fair Grounds regular trained by Cherie DeVaux, who won the Lecomte (G3) here on January 17 and ran third in the Risen Star. He's also in blinkers for the first time and has a pedigree (Curlin) that suggests the extra distance will suit. At double-digit odds, he's a legitimate trifecta piece. Brad Cox has two freshly-minted maiden winners in the field — Easterly and Autobahn — which is a classic Cox move when the points race timing is right. Neither has graded stakes form, but Cox wins these races consistently; he's had at least one local Derby prep winner every year since 2020. Emerging Market (Chad Brown) is the wild card — Brown already leads the leaderboard with Paladin and Iron Honor; a third horse in the frame would give him unusual leverage over the Derby trail.
Betting angle:
Historical trends for the Louisiana Derby are clear: 11 of the last 15 winners were positioned in the first four after the half-mile mark. That suits Chip Honcho perfectly, and he's the statistically aligned win candidate. The smarter play, though, might be to use him underneath in exactas and trifectas while keying late runners like Golden Tempo on top at bigger odds. Nine-horse fields with no dominant favorite are where exacta payouts can be genuinely substantial. The race runs as Race 12 on a 14-race card — build your ticket around the final three legs of a Pick 3 to maximize your investment.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) — Turfway Park, Florence, KY | Post: 6:25 PM ET
Race: $777,000 | 1 1/8 miles on Tapeta (synthetic) | Road to the Kentucky Derby (100-50-25-15-10 points)
The Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park is the only major Derby qualifier run on a synthetic surface, which creates a persistent pricing inefficiency in the futures market: horses that win on Tapeta tend to be undervalued by bettors who discount synthetic form when projecting to Churchill's dirt. That's produced some extraordinary overlays — Rich Strike won the Jeff Ruby in 2022 and paid $82.70 on the Kentucky Derby board.
The field: The headline contender is Fulleffort (Brad Cox), who ran a strong second in the John Battaglia Memorial here in February. Cox knows Turfway well and sending Fulleffort back to a familiar surface after a near-miss is a logical progression. Two Out Hero makes his second Turfway appearance after an unlucky stumble in his debut here cost him any chance — he was 4-1 that day and didn't finish. On talent alone, he deserves another look. The intriguing overlay could be Chaos Agent, a Florida shipper who has made only one career start — a 1.5-length win at Gulfstream in February on Tapeta Footings, the same synthetic surface used at Turfway. If he takes a forward step, exotic payouts improve significantly.
Betting angle:
The synthetic surface introduces genuine unpredictability. Horses switching from turf to Tapeta often outperform their morning lines. This is a race where a Pick 4 play starting with the Jeff Ruby makes more sense than a straight win bet — spread the win slot and focus on locking in a deep exotic. Fulleffort is the logical key at moderate odds; use Chaos Agent and Two Out Hero as alternatives to maximize potential payouts.
Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) — Same card, Race 11
Don't sleep on the Kentucky Oaks trail. The Fair Grounds Oaks runs on the same card as the Louisiana Derby and offers 100 qualifying points toward Kentucky Oaks eligibility (May 1 at Churchill Downs). Bella Ballerina headlines after winning the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) and is the clear class of the field. The interesting angle here is that a well-bet favorite in the Oaks race creates better pricing on the Derby race directy after it — bettors who've just cashed tend to reinvest, often pushing favorites in subsequent legs. Use the transition between the two races to find value.
Weekend Two: Friday–Saturday, March 27–28
This is the biggest racing weekend of the spring outside of Derby Week itself. Three Grade 1 and Grade 2 races with 100 Derby points apiece, plus a $1 million Kentucky Oaks qualifier, all running across two days at two tracks. If you're going to build a serious spring bankroll, this is where you start.
Fantasy Stakes (G2) — Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs | Friday, March 27
Race: $1 million | 1 1/16 miles on dirt | Road to the Kentucky Oaks (100-50-25-15-10 points)
Friday's Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn is the final major qualifier before the Kentucky Oaks and offers the biggest purse of any filly prep race in North America. The $1 million figure is historic — this is the first time 3-year-old fillies have had the opportunity to run for a seven-figure purse before the Oaks itself. Counting Stars and Search Party (both trained by Mark Casse) are expected to run, along with Honeybee winner Explora (Bob Baffert). Counting Stars bounced back impressively after a poor effort in the Martha Washington, finishing a close second in the Honeybee — she's a win threat if she gets a clean trip.
Betting angle:
Baffert has an exceptional record in the Fantasy Stakes — he's 3-for-3 in it, including winning the 2012 edition with a horse who went on to define the 2024 Kentucky Oaks picture (Thorpedo Anna won her Fantasy in 2024 before becoming Horse of the Year). But favorite bias can be a trap in fillies' races when multiple quality horses are stepping up in distance together for the first time. Exactas and trifectas involving at least one double-digit horse typically offer strong returns in these fields. Friday also sets up an excellent two-day parlay if you can identify an overlay in the Fantasy to carry into the Arkansas Derby card on Saturday.
Arkansas Derby (G1) — Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs | Saturday, March 28
Race: $1.5 million | 1 1/8 miles on dirt | Road to the Kentucky Derby (100-50-25-15-10 points)
The richest Derby prep in North America and the one that typically draws the most serious pari-mutuel action of the spring prep season. Oaklawn runs a tight, fast dirt track that favors horses with tactical speed and the stamina to stretch out — attributes that translate well to Churchill Downs. Expected starters include Renegade (Todd Pletcher), who won the Sam F. Davis (G3) by 3.75 lengths and is building steadily; Litmus Test (Bob Baffert), who ran third in the Rebel last month off a modest prep; and Blackout Time (Kenny McPeek), who has been working sharply at Oaklawn and put in the fastest workout of 90 horses in his final prep breeze.
Class President, the Rebel winner, is also a possibility at Oaklawn depending on trainer Todd Pletcher's decision — he has the option of either this race or pointing straight to the Derby. That decision, expected in the next few days, will significantly alter the morning line here. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott) has also been pointed here after his runner-up finish in the Fountain of Youth.
Betting angle:
This is the race where the sharpest pari-mutuel money in spring racing concentrates. Pools are deep, fields are genuine, and the public tends to overbet Baffert runners even when their form doesn't entirely justify it. Litmus Test's third-place Rebel finish is modest form for a 100-point race — if he's sent off below 5-1, that's a fading situation. Renegade and Blackout Time are both horses coming in with forward momentum, and either makes more logical sense at their expected price points. The exacta box between the two of them, combined with a Pletcher horse, is a classic Arkansas Derby play.
Florida Derby (G1) — Gulfstream Park | Saturday, March 28
Race: $1 million | 1 1/8 miles on dirt | Road to the Kentucky Derby (100-50-25-15-10 points)
The Florida Derby is the season's first Grade 1 and a historically productive Kentucky Derby pathway — 25 Florida Derby winners have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby, an unmatched record. This year's edition is shaping up as the most competitive prep race of the entire spring, with three legitimate contenders likely to clash.
Nearly (Todd Pletcher) is 3-for-3 at Gulfstream, which is a meaningful home track edge, and runs with Pletcher's preferred tactical style — press the pace, take command, hold on. Commandment (Brad Cox) won the Fountain of Youth (G2) and is Wathnan Racing's flagship Derby contender, with Cox describing the two-turn experience as something he specifically wanted to build in before the Florida Derby. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr.) is the most intriguing runner — the same connections that won the 2023 Derby with Mage are pointing him here after his upset victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, and Delgado manages his horses brilliantly into big races.
Betting angle:
Pletcher has eight Florida Derby wins on his record. The market will make Nearly a short-priced favorite, probably somewhere between 6-5 and 2-1. The question is whether the public significantly undervalues Commandment or The Puma — both of whom have better résumés at this point in the spring. The Puma at double-digit odds would be an overlay of note. If you're betting the Florida Derby as a win race, Nearly is the easy play; if you're looking for value, The Puma underneath in the exacta gives you exposure to a meaningful payout without abandoning the favorite entirely.
Oaklawn Mile (G3) — Same card as Arkansas Derby | $500,000
The Oaklawn Mile brings older horses into the picture and offers a genuine betting opportunity distinct from the 3-year-old preps. At 1 mile on Oaklawn's fast dirt, older horses with sprint-distance form often go overlooked in the morning line while trainers who know the track surface have a clear edge. This is a strong card-building race — use it to anchor a Pick 3 or Pick 4 starting from the Fantasy Stakes on Friday evening.
How to Build Your Bankroll Across Both Weekends
The two-weekend structure of late March gives serious bettors an opportunity to build sequentially — carry winners forward and compound your position.
Bet exotic, not straight. With wide-open fields and contested morning lines, exactas and trifectas offer significantly better value than win bets across all four of the major March races. The exception is a clear overlay like The Puma in the Florida Derby — if he goes off at 15-1 or better, a small win play makes sense on top of your exotic tickets.
Don't bet the heavy Baffert favorite without homework. Explora in the Fantasy Stakes and Litmus Test in the Arkansas Derby will both likely be well below fair value at post time. Both are legitimate horses — but both have been beaten and both carry Baffert premium in the pool.
Watch the trainer patterns. Brad Cox is on a remarkable run at both Oaklawn and Gulfstream. His horses in the Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby fields deserve serious attention regardless of morning-line position. Cox horses often close late; factor that into how you structure your Pick 3 tickets.
The Oaks trail is underbet in March. Most casual bettors focus on the Derby prep side of the weekend cards. The Fantasy Stakes and Fair Grounds Oaks fields generate lighter public action, which means more favorable odds on genuinely talented fillies. These are races where value is consistently available.
March 28 is a two-track play. The Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby run the same day and you can bet both at MyWinners through the same account. This creates a natural two-track bankroll — size your bets appropriately across both races rather than concentrating everything on one.
Bet It All at MyWinners
Every race in this guide streams live at our Connecticut venue locations where you'll find full-card past performances, expert staff, and pari-mutuel betting on every race at every major track in North America. Bet online at app.mywinners.com, or download the MyWinners: Racing & Sports app on iOS or Android.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the best races to bet on in US horse racing this weekend, March 21?
The $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park in Kentucky both run on Saturday, March 21, offering 100 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby. Both races feature wide-open fields with genuine betting value — the Louisiana Derby in particular has a strong record of producing Derby horses and typically delivers competitive exacta and trifecta payouts.
Who is the favorite for the 2026 Louisiana Derby?
Chip Honcho is the morning-line favorite for the 2026 Louisiana Derby at approximately 3-1. The Steve Asmussen-trained Connect colt has raced exclusively at Fair Grounds this season, including a runner-up finish to current Kentucky Derby points leader Paladin in the Risen Star (G2). He's adding blinkers for the first time and historical trends strongly favor his front-running style at this track and distance.
What is the richest horse race in the US in March 2026?
The Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park on March 28 carries a $1.5 million purse, making it the richest Derby prep race in North America and the richest horse race of the month in the US. The Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park runs the same day with a $1 million purse. Combined with the Louisiana Derby and the Fantasy Stakes, March 28 alone features well over $3.5 million in stakes purses across two racetracks.
Can I bet on the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby on the same day?
Yes. Both the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park run on Saturday, March 28. You can bet pari-mutuel on both races through MyWinners — either on the app, online at app.mywinners.com or in-person at any Winners venue in Connecticut. Both races will be available with full-card past performances and live simulcast coverage.
What is the Jeff Ruby Steaks and why does it matter for Kentucky Derby betting?
The Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) is a $777,000 Derby prep race held at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky on Tapeta synthetic surface. It's the only major Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier run on a synthetic track and has produced three Kentucky Derby winners since 1980 — most recently Rich Strike in 2022, who won at 80-1 on Derby Day after using the Jeff Ruby as his final prep. From a betting standpoint, the synthetic surface creates consistent pricing inefficiency: Jeff Ruby winners tend to be undervalued in Derby future pools because many bettors discount synthetic form, creating overlay opportunities.
