Preakness Stakes 2026: Final Predictions and Best Bets
Race: 151st Preakness Stakes (G1)
Venue: Laurel Park, Laurel, MD
Distance: 1 3/16 miles
Post Time: 7:01pm ET, Saturday, May 16, 2026
Purse: $2 million
The Setup: What This Race Is — and What It Isn't ↑ Contents
Let's be clear about the context going into Saturday. Golden Tempo is not here. The Kentucky Derby winner has been pointed at the Belmont, which means there is no Triple Crown story to write this weekend. What there is, instead, is a wide-open, 14-horse, $1.5 million Grade 1 race at Laurel Park — a venue hosting the Preakness for the first and likely only time, while Pimlico completes its renovation. That makes this a genuinely unusual edition of a historic race, and the form lines are harder to read than usual as a result.
The favourite is a horse that skipped the Derby on purpose. The most hyped local contender has never faced this class. The best Derby runner in the field hasn't won a race. Factor in a full field of 14 — which historically amplifies post-position effects — and Saturday has the makings of a genuine puzzle. One that pays well if you get it right.
Let's break it down.
The Field at a Glance ↑ Contents
| Post | Horse | ML Odds | Trainer | Jockey | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taj Mahal ⭐ | +500 | Brittany Russell | Sheldon Russell | 3-for-3, all wins at Laurel Park; won Federico Tesio by 8¼ lengths over this exact surface; class question unanswered |
| 2 | Ocelli | +600 | Whit Beckman | Tyler Gaffalione | Maiden; 3rd in Kentucky Derby; $600k+ career earnings; stalker style |
| 3 | Crupper | +3000 | Donnie Von Hemel | Junior Alvarado | Gate-to-wire Bathhouse Row Stakes winner at Oaklawn. Alvarado won the 2025 Derby and Belmont on Sovereignty. At +3000, a must-use in your superfecta. |
| 4 | Robusta | +3000 | Doug O'Neill | Rafael Bejarano | 14th in Kentucky Derby; Calumet Farm homebred; post historically productive |
| 5 | Talkin | +2000 | Danny Gargan | Irad Ortiz Jr. | Post 5 leads all gates for Preakness wins since 2000; Irad takes a 20-1 shot — pay attention |
| 6 | Chip Honcho | +500 | Steve Asmussen | Jose Ortiz | Post 6 leads all Preakness gates historically (17 wins, 14.8%); Derby skip by design; Ortiz fresh off Derby win |
| 7 | The Hell We Did | +1500 | Todd Fincher | Luis Saez | Son of Authentic (2020 Derby winner), half-brother to Saudi Cup winner Senor Buscador; only second start at route distance |
| 8 | Bull by the Horns | +3000 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Micah Husbands | Withdrawn from Peter Pan Stakes to run here; son of 2021 Belmont winner Essential Quality; closer who could pick up pieces if pace collapses |
| 9 | Iron Honor | +450 | Chad Brown | Flavien Prat | Market favourite; Brown 2-for-2 with Preakness-only runners; removing blinkers for the first time Saturday; Wood Memorial flop (7th) the concern |
| 10 | Napoleon Solo | +800 | Chad Summers | Paco Lopez | Value at 8-1; wide draw the main concern; worth exotics inclusion |
| 11 | Corona de Oro | +3000 | Dallas Stewart | John Velazquez | Stewart placed 2nd twice in the Preakness; Velazquez won the 2023 running |
| 12 | Incredibolt | +500 | Riley Mott | Jaime Torres | 6th KY Derby; late runner — wide draw suits; won Virginia Derby & Street Sense Stakes |
| 13 | Great White | +1500 | John Ennis | Alex Achard | Flipped before the Derby gate and was a last-minute scratch; best form on all-weather — needs to prove it on dirt at Laurel |
| 14 | Pretty Boy Miah | +1500 | Jeremiah Englehart | Ricardo Santana Jr. | Post 14 has never produced a Preakness winner; speed horse needs to overcome history |
The table above summarises post positions, morning-line odds, trainers, jockeys and key form notes for all 14 runners. Check it for a quick reference before you bet.
Pace Scenario ↑ Contents
This is not a race starved of early speed, and that matters at 1 3/16 miles. From the outside posts, Great White (13) and Pretty Boy Miah (14) are identified as front-runners marooned wide — they will either push hard to establish position or bleed themselves dry trying. Taj Mahal from post 1, drawn ideally on the rail for his front-running style, is also expected to put his foot down early. Chip Honcho from post 6 — historically the most productive gate in Preakness history — is another prominent runner under Jose Ortiz.
If Great White and Pretty Boy Miah press from the outside, the early pace is going to be hot. That sets up nicely for a quality closer or a well-positioned stalker to run them down in the straight. Ocelli (post 2) is described as a stalker — sits just off the pace, waits for a gap. Incredibolt (post 12) is a confirmed late runner who should not be disadvantaged by drawing wide. Iron Honor's Chad Brown has trained previous Preakness winners to settle mid-pack and come home strongly.
Pace verdict: honest-to-fast fractions, likely favouring horses who are off the early speed. The rail and inner posts get traffic cover early, which benefits Taj Mahal's positioning but could box him in on the turn if the pace compresses. Napoleon Solo (post 10, 8-1) and Iron Honor (post 9) have the luxury of tracking from a position that avoids the worst of the first-turn scramble.
Post Position Analysis ↑ Contents
With a maximum 14-horse field, post positions carry genuine weight here. The historical record since 1909 is instructive: post 6 leads all gates with 17 winners (14.8% win rate), and the "sweet spot" is broadly acknowledged as posts 4 through 7. Posts 8 and beyond see a consistent drop-off in win rate, adjusted for field size.
The good draws: Chip Honcho (6) and The Hell We Did (7) are the historical sweet-spot residents. Talkin (5) sits in a gate that has produced more Preakness winners since 2000 than any other. Robusta (4) gets a clean draw despite being a 30-1 outsider. Ocelli (2) avoids the trouble of the widest draws while remaining well-placed to stalk.
The concerning draws: Iron Honor (9) starts just outside the sweet spot. The form players love him, but post 9 has done noticeably less well than 6 or 7 in comparable field sizes. Napoleon Solo (10) is in a similar boat. Both need clean runs. Great White (13) and Pretty Boy Miah (14) have almost no historical precedent working in their favour — post 14 has never produced a Preakness winner.
Notable: Incredibolt at post 12 is explicitly described as a late runner by multiple analysts — wide post positions have far less impact on closers than on speed horses, and the wide draw actually keeps him out of early traffic trouble.
See our full blogs on the 2026 Preakness Stakes Post Position Draw Reaction: Updated Picks and Revised Pace Scenario and Does Post Position Matter at the Preakness Stakes? Gate-by-Gate Data and 2026 Implications.
Form Guide: The Contenders ↑ Contents
Iron Honor — Post 9, +450 (9-2 ML)
The morning-line favourite has an excellent pedigree for this race. Trainer Chad Brown deliberately bypassed the Kentucky Derby and targeted the Preakness — he has done exactly this before with Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022), both Preakness winners. The Wood Memorial flop (7th) is the obvious concern, but Brown has a record of bringing horses to a peak for this race specifically. Notably, Iron Honor is removing blinkers for the first time on Saturday — Brown wants him to settle and relax under Flavien Prat, who won the 2021 Preakness on Rombauer. The post-9 draw is workable but not ideal in a 14-horse field. Iron Honor is a legitimate contender — just not a surefire winner.
Chip Honcho — Post 6, +500 (5-1 ML)
Trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Jose Ortiz — who rode Golden Tempo to Derby glory two weeks ago — Chip Honcho bypassed the Kentucky Derby along with Iron Honor and the connections clearly believe the Preakness distance and setup suit him better. Post 6 is the race's historically luckiest gate, and Ortiz will know exactly how to exploit it. Asmussen's record in the Preakness is solid. The price of +500 is attractive given the post draw alone.
Taj Mahal — Post 1, +500 (5-1 ML)
Undefeated in three starts — all at Laurel Park. Trainer Brittany Russell is based permanently at this track and knows it inside out. Sired by Nyquist (himself a Kentucky Derby winner), this colt is undeniably exciting. The concern is class: Taj Mahal has never faced horses at this level, and the morning-line reflects that uncertainty. NBC Sports' own form analysis makes him their win pick, citing his unbeaten record and course familiarity. The rail draw is tricky in a 14-horse field — he gets first access to the fence but also risks traffic on the first turn if pressed. At +500, he represents significant each-way value even if the class question is ultimately answered against him.
Ocelli — Post 2, +600 (6-1 ML)
Arguably the most intriguing horse in the race. A maiden — he has never won — yet he has earned over $600,000 from consistency alone, with a career record of 0-1-4 across seven starts. In the Kentucky Derby, he briefly hit the front in the stretch before fading late after early traffic. If he wins the Preakness, he becomes the first maiden to do so since 1888. The stalker running style suits the likely pace scenario. Trainer Whit Beckman initially hesitated but the horse came out of the Derby well. Tyler Gaffalione aboard. Post 2 is clean and comfortable. The maiden tag is a legitimate concern but the form is honest.
Incredibolt — Post 12, +500 (5-1 ML)
Trained by Riley Mott (son of Hall of Famer Bill Mott), this Pin Oak Stud homebred won the Virginia Derby and the Street Sense Stakes before a bumpy sixth in the Kentucky Derby. The Mott connection notes he wasn't beaten far and was bumped early at Churchill. Alternating wins and sixth-place finishes over his last four starts gives reason for pause, but against a field slightly below Derby quality, Incredibolt has genuine talent. Post 12 is far out but suits a closer. At +500, the price is identical to Chip Honcho — and the post draw is arguably better for his running style.
Napoleon Solo — Post 10, +800 (8-1 ML)
Among the less-discussed runners who deserves more attention. Trained by Chad Summers and ridden by Paco Lopez (NBC Sports sourcing lists Joel Rosario, which may reflect a change), Napoleon Solo carries a price that looks on the generous side relative to his ability. The wide post is a concern. At 8-1 in a wide-open race, he is an intriguing each-way inclusion in exotics.
The Hell We Did — Post 7, +1500 (15-1 ML)
Post 7 is the second-best gate historically. Trainer Todd Fincher, Luis Saez in the saddle. Son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and half-brother to Saudi Cup winner Senor Buscador — the breeding is serious. Saturday is only his second start at a route distance, so stamina is unproven, but the talent is not in question. At +1500, he belongs in your vertical exotics.
Our Final Verdict ↑ Contents
Win Pick: Taj Mahal (+500)
Unbeaten in three starts, all at the venue where Saturday's race is run. Trainer Brittany Russell is based permanently at Laurel Park and knows it inside out. Sheldon Russell has ridden this track his entire career — he knows where to be and how to save ground. If Taj Mahal breaks cleanly, he sits just off the pace, saves every inch of real estate on both turns, and kicks in the stretch. At +500, you're getting a horse who has never been beaten at this track. He's our selection to win.
Each-Way Play: Chip Honcho (+500)
Post 6, the most historically productive gate in the race. Steve Asmussen is a seasoned trainer on the biggest stages. Jose Ortiz is riding the crest of a wave after the Derby win with Golden Tempo and has a genuine point to prove in the Preakness under his own name. Chip Honcho bypassed the Kentucky Derby by design — these connections believe this is the race for him. At +500, he's live to hit the board at minimum.
Longshot of the Race: Ocelli (+600)
Yes, he hasn't won. Yes, the maiden tag should be disqualifying. But Ocelli was briefly in front in the Kentucky Derby stretch and has quietly banked over $600,000 without a win to his name. The race setup — hot pace, stalker style, clean post draw — sets up precisely for the kind of horse he is. If there ever was a race for a maiden to make history, this is it. Longshot of the race. Use him in your exotics.
Exotic Structures
| Bet Type | Structure | Key Horses (Post No.) | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | Single | Taj Mahal (1) | Unbeaten at Laurel, local trainer edge, Sheldon Russell knows every inch of this track |
| Place | Single | Chip Honcho (6) | Best post draw in the race, smart Derby bypass, hot jockey at +500 — live to hit the board |
| Exacta | Box | Taj Mahal (1) / Chip Honcho (6) / Iron Honor (9) | Top three picks; boxed exacta covers all 6 combinations |
| Exacta (Value) | Part-wheel | Taj Mahal (1) ON TOP of Chip Honcho (6) / Ocelli (2) / Incredibolt (12) / Napoleon Solo (10) | Taj Mahal to win; priced horses to fill second for strong returns |
| Trifecta | Part-wheel | Taj Mahal (1) / Chip Honcho (6) WITH Iron Honor (9) / Ocelli (2) / Incredibolt (12) / Napoleon Solo (10) | Top two locked in first and second; four live threats fighting for third |
| Superfecta | Key | Taj Mahal (1) KEY, then Chip Honcho (6) / Ocelli (2) / Iron Honor (9) / Incredibolt (12) / Napoleon Solo (10) / Crupper (3) in remaining three spots | Taj Mahal nailed on top; wide open for second through fourth from a strong group |
| Longshot Special | Exacta | Ocelli (2) on top of Taj Mahal (1) / Chip Honcho (6) | Maiden upset pays big; stalker form suits pace scenario perfectly at +600 |
The exotics table above lays out our recommended exacta, trifecta and superfecta structures for Saturday. Use the field table to cross-reference post positions and current prices.
Ready to Bet? Here's How ↑ Contents
Ready to watch the race and get your bets on? The 2026 Preakness Stakes goes to post at approximately 6:50 PM ET on Saturday, May 16.
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Frequently Asked Questions ↑ Contents
Iron Honor, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat, is the morning-line favourite at +450 (9-2). He deliberately skipped the Kentucky Derby — a strategy Brown has used successfully before with Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022), both Preakness winners. Notably, he runs without blinkers for the first time on Saturday.
Trainer Cherie DeVaux announced that Golden Tempo will bypass the Preakness to focus on the Belmont Stakes on June 6. The connections cited the horse's health and long-term wellbeing after a demanding Derby effort. It marks the third time in five years that the Kentucky Derby winner has skipped the second Triple Crown leg.
The 151st Preakness Stakes is being run at Laurel Park in Laurel, Maryland. This is a one-off venue change while Pimlico Race Course undergoes its renovation. The race is scheduled to return to Pimlico in 2027.
Three horses made the trip from Churchill Downs to Laurel Park: Ocelli, who finished third in the Derby; Incredibolt, who finished sixth; and Robusta, who finished 14th. Great White was a last-minute scratch from the Derby and is also in the Preakness field.
Post 6 has produced the most Preakness winners of any gate — 17 winners at a 14.8% win rate since 1909. Post 7 is the runner-up. The broad sweet spot historically runs from posts 4 through 7. Chip Honcho occupies post 6 in this year's race. Post 14 has never produced a Preakness winner.
The 2026 Preakness Stakes carries a purse of $2 million, with $1.2 million going to the winner. The winning connections also receive the Woodlawn Vase, considered one of the most valuable trophies in sport — first assessed at $1 million in 1983 and worth considerably more today adjusted for inflation.
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The 2026 Preakness Stakes goes to post at 7:01 PM ET on Saturday, May 16. Live TV and streaming coverage on NBC and Peacock begins at 1:00 PM ET.
