Derby Day is here. The gates load at 6:57pm ET. And if you went to sleep last night with The Puma circled on your card, I’ve got news.
Updated at 2.14pm, 05/02/26.
🚨 The Puma Has Scratched
The horse I picked yesterday — The Puma, Post 9, Javier Castellano in the irons — will not run today.
The official word from trainer Gustavo Delgado this morning: “We discovered some swelling in his leg due to a skin infection. It’s incredibly disappointing but the swelling should go down within a day or two. It’s just really bad timing.”
It is bad timing. Genuinely gutting for the connections and for anyone who had already built their tickets around him. The Puma had the form, the rider, and the post. He deserved his shot.
Right to Party (-290) also scratched earlier this morning, with Robusta drawing in as the final replacement. Three scratches in total since the draw — Silent Tactic, Fulleffort and Right to Party — plus The Puma this morning. We run with nineteen horses.
But the race goes on. And I’ve got a new pick.
🏇 My New Pick: Chief Wallabee
With The Puma out, I’ve gone back to the form. And the horse I keep landing on is Chief Wallabee.
He comes out of the Florida form camp, which I’ve been saying all spring is the strongest prep path in the field. He drew Post 12 — clean, right in the middle of the gate. Bill Mott won this race twelve months ago with Sovereignty and the same jockey, Junior Alvarado, is back in the irons. This team knows how to win a Derby. Mott doesn’t bring horses here to make up the numbers.
Chief Wallabee didn’t race as a juvenile, won his debut in January, ran second to Commandment in the Fountain of Youth, and third in the Florida Derby. He’s lightly raced and improving. He’ll wear blinkers for the first time today. The wise guys around Churchill Downs have been talking him up all week.
At +700, he’s among the shortest prices in the race. The Puma’s scratch doesn’t make Renegade a better horse. It creates a hole in the market, and Chief Wallabee is the horse I want stepping into it.
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Exacta: Chief Wallabee on top, Further Ado and Renegade underneath. Further Ado’s 106 Beyer is still the best figure in the field. Renegade is still the favourite from Post 1 — but Post 1 hasn’t produced a Derby winner since Ferdinand in 1986.
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Longshots to keep onside: Emerging Market (+1500) represents serious value. And Ocelli (+5000) is still trying to become the first maiden to win the Derby since Broker’s Tip in 1933. Probably won’t happen. But we’re at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Stranger things.
