World Cup Knockouts: USA vs Bosnia Headlines a Loaded Week
The group stage is wrapping up, the Round of 32 is locking in, and the USMNT has the softest draw of any contender
The group stage delivered everything. Messi turned 39 and kept scoring, Mexico went unbeaten without conceding, Spain got held by Cape Verde, and Türkiye stunned us in the dying seconds in LA. Now the knockouts are here. The Round of 32 runs Sunday June 28 through Friday July 3, and the first ties are already locked. Here's what's confirmed, what's still up for grabs this weekend, and where the betting value sits.
Quick note on the format: a handful of groups finish on June 26, 27 and 28, so some matchups below are confirmed and others are still settling. We've been straight about which is which. No guessing.
USA vs Bosnia: The One That's Locked
We topped Group D. Beat Paraguay 4-1 with a Balogun brace, handled Australia 2-0, then rested the starters and lost a dead rubber to Türkiye 3-2. First place was already sealed before that last game, so it didn't matter. Topping the group bought us the softest knockout draw of any serious side.
| Market | USA | Draw | Bosnia & Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90-min moneyline | -185 | +280 | +600 |
| To advance | -460 | — | +340 |
Wednesday, July 1 we face Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, kickoff 8pm ET on FOX. This one's confirmed, both teams locked. Bosnia squeezed through as one of the eight best third-place teams after beating Qatar 3-1. It's only their second World Cup ever and their first time reaching the knockouts, so they're house money.
The books have us heavy. The US opened around -185 on the three-way moneyline, the draw at +280, Bosnia all the way out at +600. To advance, we're roughly -460 with Bosnia at +340 to reach the last 16 for the first time in their history. That price is fair. Bosnia sit 59th in the ELO ratings, behind the likes of Cape Verde and Panama, and their group-stage scoring flattered them. Five goals off under two expected, most of it in the Qatar romp. That kind of finishing regresses.
Malik Tillman has graded out as one of the standout players of the entire group stage, and Pochettino's rotation against Türkiye means fresh legs. DraftKings now has us +3000 to win the whole thing, our shortest of the tournament, and we're favored to reach the quarterfinals.
Our bet: USA to advance is short but solid. For value, look at a US clean sheet or the under on Bosnia's goal total. Their attack is running on fumes.
The Other Confirmed Round of 32 Ties
| Date | Match | Time (ET) | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, June 28 | Canada vs South Africa | 3:00 PM | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood |
| Mon, June 29 | Brazil vs Japan | 1:00 PM | NRG Stadium, Houston |
| Mon, June 29 | Germany vs Paraguay | 4:30 PM | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough |
| Mon, June 29 | Netherlands vs Morocco | 9:00 PM | Estadio BBVA, Monterrey |
| Wed, July 1 | USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | 8:00 PM | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara |
Brazil vs Japan (June 29, Houston). The trap game of the round. Brazil won Group C conceding just once, but Japan finished runner-up in the brutal Group F and already drew the Netherlands 2-2. Quick, organized, dangerous on the counter. Brazil are favorites but this is no gimme. Live underdog territory.
Netherlands vs Morocco (June 29, Monterrey). Pick of the round on paper. Morocco were a semifinalist last time out and the Dutch have a strong spine. Coin-flip energy. Great live betting matchup.
Germany vs Paraguay (June 29, Foxborough). Germany won Group E and are heavy favorites, but they haven't gone past a quarterfinal at a major since 2016, and Paraguay are battle-tested. Worth a look on the underdog or the draw-no-bet.
Canada vs South Africa (June 28, Inglewood). The lone game on opening knockout day. Co-host Canada against a South Africa side that shocked South Korea to get here. Canada are favored on home soil.
Still Being Decided This Weekend
Several big names haven't finished their groups yet, so their opponents aren't set. Don't trust anyone telling you these matchups as fact, they're not locked until the groups close.
England play their final group game against Panama on Saturday June 27 at MetLife. They sit level with Ghana on four points and top Group L on goal difference. Win and they're through as group winners with a soft knockout draw waiting. Croatia and Ghana fight for the other spots alongside. England are +700 to win the tournament, fourth on the board, with Kane, Bellingham and Foden carrying the threat.
Argentina are through as Group J winners on the back of Messi's record-breaking brace against Austria. Their Round of 32 opponent is the Group H runner-up, still undecided between Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia. The defending champs are heating up at the perfect time, top three in the title market at +600 to +900.
France are through but topping Group I came down to their Friday June 26 showdown with Norway. Mbappé scored twice against Senegal and they look the most complete side in the field, top of the outright market at +370 to +500.
Mexico won Group A unbeaten without conceding, three wins from three, and host their Round of 32 tie at the Azteca on June 30 against a third-place side to be confirmed. The home factor is real, El Tri reached the quarters in both previous tournaments they hosted.
Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay round out the Latin American contingent, all still alive. Colombia topped a tough Group K and Uruguay's fate in Group H comes down to the wire against Spain.
The Title Picture
| Team | Title Odds | Status |
|---|---|---|
| France | +370 to +500 | Through, Group I |
| Spain | +500 | Through, Group H finishing |
| Argentina | +600 to +900 | Group J winner |
| England | +700 | Final group game June 27 |
| Portugal | +1000 | Group K finishing |
| Brazil | +1100 to +1250 | Group C winner |
| Germany | +1300 | Group E winner |
| Netherlands | +1300 | Group F winner |
| USA | +3000 | Group D winner, co-host |
| Mexico | +5000 | Group A winner, co-host |
France (+370 to +500) lead the board. Mbappé's in form and the squad looks complete.
Spain (+500) bounced back from the Cape Verde scare with a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia. The 36-game unbeaten run is intact and Yamal is must-watch.
Argentina (+600 to +900) are the defending champs with Messi rolling. Nobody's idea of a fun draw.
England (+700) have the talent and a kind side of the bracket if they top their group.
Behind them, Portugal got a Ronaldo brace in a 5-0 win over Uzbekistan, Brazil re-entered the picture around +1100 to +1250, and Germany sit further back after a shaky group. The USA at +3000 is the longest a co-host has any business being, but stranger things have happened on home soil.
Things to Watch
The third-place teams are vulnerable. Eight advanced under the new 48-team format, most backing in on goal difference rather than merit. Bosnia and Paraguay both look like prime fade candidates against group winners.
Extra time matters for your bets. Knockout ties can't end level. If it's tied after 90 it goes to extra time and then penalties. Goals in ET or shootouts don't count toward your over/under, so price your totals on the 90 minutes only.
Stage markets beat outrights. If you fancy a side to reach a specific round rather than win it all, those markets are far safer. USA to reach the Round of 16, England to reach the quarters, Argentina to reach the final. Clearer paths to cash than picking the outright winner.
Bet the World Cup at MyWinners
Every match this week can be watched and bet at every MyWinners venue across Connecticut. Betting is available in-venue only through Fanatics Sportsbook, so get down to the floor, grab a seat and get your action in on the biggest tournament on the planet.
This week's watch party is at our Stamford venue for USA vs Bosnia on Wednesday, July 1 at 8pm ET. Big screens, full crowd, the whole knockout atmosphere for the biggest US match of the tournament so far.
Find your nearest MyWinners venue here: Winners Venues in CT
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