Hughes closed at 8/1 in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager on Friday, October 30. About an hour later, he won the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland. That win also sent him to the top of the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard. So every $2 ticket on him pays $19.04 if he wins Kentucky Derby 153 on May 1, 2027. Not bad at all.
That price won’t change, because Future Wager odds lock when a pool closes. Pool 2 comes next. It runs over Thanksgiving weekend, so we’ve broken down the key Pool 1 payouts and exacta prices. We’ve also listed the dates for the five pools still to come.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 Final Odds and Payouts
Once again, bettors made the field the favorite, pushing “All Other Colts and Geldings Foaled in 2024” down to even money (1/1). Meanwhile, Champagne Stakes (G1) winner U.S.S. Valor closed as the top individual choice at 6/1. Hughes came next at 8/1, then Salahudin at 16/1 and American History at 23/1.
In total, the pool handled $194,889, with $161,915 in the win pool and $32,974 on exactas. That beat last year’s $184,492 by 5.6%, even though exacta money fell from $41,044, which means win betting drove all of the growth and then some. That’s a healthy start.
Our table below lists the top 10 betting interests, so you can see where the money went and how it lines up with points.
| Betting Interest | Trainer | Final Odds | $2 Payout | Derby Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Field (All Other Colts and Geldings) | Various | 1/1 | $4.14 | Various |
| U.S.S. Valor | Shug McGaughey III | 6/1 | $15.84 | 10 |
| Hughes | Bob Baffert | 8/1 | $19.04 | 40 |
| Salahudin | Bob Baffert | 16/1 | $38.84 | 19 |
| American History | Todd Pletcher | 23/1 | $49.30 | 25 |
| Nevada | Chad Brown | 26/1 | $54.16 | 0 |
| Conviction | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 27/1 | $56.18 | 0 |
| Coach Pope | Kenny McPeek | 33/1 | $68.52 | 11 |
| Zedan | Bob Baffert | 40/1 | $83.40 | 0 |
| Inshallah | John Sadler | 50/1 | $103.66 | 0 |
Final odds and $2 payouts come from Churchill Downs’ official Pool 1 results for October 28 to 30, 2026, while points come from the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard updated October 30, 2026. Pool 1 payouts stay fixed from here, whatever happens in later pools.
How the Field Ticket Pays
Every colt or gelding missing from the list also runs for the field ticket. So a $2 bet on the field returns $4.14 if any unlisted colt or gelding wins the Derby. Meanwhile, the “All Fillies Foaled in 2024” option closed at 99/1 and pays $201.32 if a filly wins.
Why the Field Went Off at Even Money
In fact, eight horses on the current points leaderboard don’t appear in the Pool 1 lineup at all. Instead, they belong to the field. That group includes Real Goodbar, fourth in the Iroquois (G3), and Domus, fourth in the American Pharoah (G1). Title Worthy and Blessed Flyer also earned points before the pool opened, but neither got an individual listing. So the field carries real talent.
History backs the field too. Golden Tempo won Kentucky Derby 152 at 23/1 in May, but he didn’t even break his maiden until December 20, 2025, almost two months after last season’s first pool closed. As a result, he ran for the field in the first three pools last season, so those field tickets cashed. Churchill Downs then added him as an individual from Pool 4.
Even so, even money leaves you very little margin. After all, the field covers every colt not named on the list, but only one horse can win the race.
Hughes Won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile After Pool 1 Closed
Pool 1 shut at 4pm ET, while the Juvenile carried a 4:55pm ET post time. Then Hughes broke alertly under Flavien Prat, tracked Damavand’s early lead and took control through the far turn. He still had to dig in. In the end, he beat American History by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:42.27, while Salahudin ran third and Coach Pope fourth.
That made Hughes 5 for 5 for Bob Baffert, who has now won the Juvenile seven times, two more than Todd Pletcher’s five. It also lifted the colt to 40 points, 15 clear of American History. Since the Juvenile paid 30 points to the winner, it counts as the biggest points race of the fall.
Before you chase him in Pool 2, though, remember the history. Only two Juvenile winners, Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016, have gone on to win the Derby. Last year’s Juvenile winner, Ted Noffey, closed at 7/1 in Pool 2 but then never made the Derby gate.
U.S.S. Valor Skipped Keeneland but Kept the Money
Team Valor International passed on the Juvenile with U.S.S. Valor because the connections want the Derby above everything else. Still, bettors made him the 6/1 individual favorite, shorter than his 8/1 morning line.
His form explains why. He ran third on debut at Saratoga behind Gaudreau and Coach Pope. Then he won his maiden there by 13 1/4 lengths on September 5. After that, he took the Champagne at Belmont Park by 6 1/2 lengths on October 3, beating Gaudreau this time.
Shug McGaughey trains him, and he sits fifth on the leaderboard with 10 points. Valor hasn’t met Hughes yet. Until they clash, we’d treat them as near equals.
Road to the Kentucky Derby Points Against Pool 1 Prices
Points decide who gets into the Derby, since the top 17 earners claim a starting spot. That’s why we look first at points earners who closed at big prices in Pool 1.
For example, Jas won the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs on October 25, holding off Staunch by a neck. Even so, he closed at 78/1 ($158.54) while sitting sixth with 10 points. Net Par ran second to Hughes in the American Pharoah, but he closed at 99/1 ($783.44) despite holding 5 points.
He Is No Lie, second to Salahudin in the Iroquois, also closed at 99/1 and pays $383.28, which is a big number for a colt who already owns Derby points. By contrast, Nevada (26/1) and Conviction (27/1) drew solid money without a point to their names yet.
Points aren’t everything this early, since the 100-point races don’t arrive until March 20. Still, they show which colts have already handled graded stakes company.
Pool 1 Exacta Payouts Worth Knowing
A Future Wager exacta only cashes when you name the Derby winner and the runner-up in order. In Pool 1, the cheapest $2 combination was the field over U.S.S. Valor at $32.58, followed by the field over Hughes at $35.16.
Flip those around, and Valor over the field pays $51.38, while Hughes over the field returns $62.56. A repeat of the Juvenile exacta, Hughes over American History, would also pay $233.80. Meanwhile, Hughes over Valor sits at $187.72 and Valor over Hughes at $180.48. Pool 2 will set fresh numbers.
At the other end, the least backed combinations carry $51,439.44 for $2. That shows how thin the money gets on unlikely pairs. If you want a refresher on exactas and other bet types, though, our horse racing terms explained guide covers them.
| Betting Interest | Trainer | Final Odds | $2 Payout | Derby Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Field (All Other Colts and Geldings) | Various | 1/1 | $4.14 | Various |
| U.S.S. Valor | Shug McGaughey III | 6/1 | $15.84 | 10 |
| Hughes | Bob Baffert | 8/1 | $19.04 | 40 |
| Salahudin | Bob Baffert | 16/1 | $38.84 | 19 |
| American History | Todd Pletcher | 23/1 | $49.30 | 25 |
| Nevada | Chad Brown | 26/1 | $54.16 | 0 |
| Conviction | Saffie Joseph Jr. | 27/1 | $56.18 | 0 |
| Coach Pope | Kenny McPeek | 33/1 | $68.52 | 11 |
| Zedan | Bob Baffert | 40/1 | $83.40 | 0 |
| Inshallah | John Sadler | 50/1 | $103.66 | 0 |
Final odds and $2 payouts come from Churchill Downs’ official Pool 1 results for October 28 to 30, 2026, while points come from the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard updated October 30, 2026. Pool 1 payouts stay fixed from here, whatever happens in later pools.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager 2027 Pool Dates
Churchill Downs scheduled six pools for Kentucky Derby 153, so five remain. Pool 2 runs from Thanksgiving Thursday, November 26, through Sunday, November 29, alongside the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager, where you back the stallion instead of the horse.
The Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs also falls inside that window on Saturday, November 28.
| Pool | Dates | Points Races That Weekend |
|---|---|---|
| Pool 2 | Thursday, November 26 to Sunday, November 29, also with the Sire Future Wager | Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Saturday, November 28 |
| Pool 3 | Friday, January 15 to Sunday, January 17 | Lecomte (G3), Withers and Leonatus, Saturday, January 16 |
| Pool 4 | Friday, February 12 to Sunday, February 14 | Risen Star (G2), Saturday, February 13 |
| Pool 5 | Friday, March 12 to Sunday, March 14, also with the Oaks Future Wager | Rebel (G2), Saturday, March 13 |
| Pool 6 | Thursday, April 1 to Saturday, April 3, also with the Oaks Future Wager | Santa Anita Derby (G1), Saturday, April 3 |
Pool dates come from Churchill Downs. Race dates come from the October 30 Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule, which Churchill Downs says can still change. The Blue Grass and Wood Memorial should also land on April 3, though their host tracks haven’t confirmed those dates yet.
Pools 3 to 6 and the Oaks Future Wager
After the New Year, Pool 3 runs January 15 to 17 and Pool 4 runs February 12 to 14. Then Pool 5 runs March 12 to 14, before Pool 6 closes things out from April 1 to 3.
For the first time, Churchill Downs will also offer the Longines Kentucky Oaks Future Wager twice, alongside Pools 5 and 6. Meanwhile, you can check each pool’s live odds on the official Kentucky Derby Future Wager page while it runs.
How the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Works
Each pool offers $2 win and exacta bets on named horses, as well as the fillies option and the field. Your odds lock when the pool closes, so a Pool 1 ticket on Hughes stays at $19.04 whatever happens in Pool 2.
There are no refunds, though. None. So if your horse gets hurt, misses the race or fails to qualify, the ticket loses. Churchill Downs also suspends betting on any horse hurt or sick during an open pool. However, that doesn’t refund bets already placed.
That risk explains why early prices run so much bigger than the odds you’ll see in May. It cuts both ways. Also, any price you see during an open pool keeps moving until the pool closes.
Where We Stand Before Pool 2
Hughes has earned his place at the top, but Juvenile history and a long winter make us wary of short prices. So we’d rather take a stand on a points earner who drifted in Pool 1. We’d look lower down.
Right now, Jas fits best. He won a graded stakes at Churchill Downs, the Derby’s home track, and still closed at 78/1. If his price stays big in Pool 2, we’d take a small interest. Then we’d watch the Kentucky Jockey Club closely for the next name to join the list.
Bet Kentucky Derby 153 With MyWinners
Pool 2 opens on Thanksgiving Thursday, and Churchill Downs races are available to MyWinners bettors in Connecticut, online and in venue. Meanwhile, you can catch up on the rest of our racing previews on the MyWinners blog.
Bet online at app.mywinners.com, on the MyWinners: Racing & Sports app on iOS or Android, or go here to find your nearest MyWinners or Winners venue in CT.
Image by Don Sniegowski. Licensed under CC-by-2.0.
